Through May 1, 2026, the IRS paid 97.9 million refunds averaging $3,273, up 11.1% from $2,947 at the same point in 2025. The jump came largely from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act applying retroactively to 2025 while paychecks hadn’t caught up. For 2026 returns filed in 2027 there is no official forecast yet; your own refund depends on your withholding, not the national average.
What the IRS data shows
The IRS had received 143.7 million individual returns by May 1, 2026, slightly fewer than a year earlier, but it issued 6.5% more refunds — 97.9 million — and each one was bigger on average. Total refund dollars therefore rose by roughly 18%.
Why so much? The 2025 tax law was signed on July 4, 2025 but applied to the entire 2025 year: a higher standard deduction ($15,750 single), a bigger Child Tax Credit ($2,200), and the new deductions for tips, overtime, seniors and car-loan interest. Payroll tables for 2025 had been set before the law passed, so most workers were over-withheld — and got the difference back in spring 2026.
Is the average refund a good benchmark?
Not really. The “average” mixes a retiree getting $300 back with a family of five collecting several thousand dollars of refundable credits. It’s a mean, pulled up by large EITC and child-credit refunds, and it only counts people who got a refund — about a third of filers owe or break even.
A single worker whose W-4 matches reality should get back close to nothing — that’s the system working. Families with children and workers claiming the new deductions are the ones who end up above the average.
What to expect for 2026 returns (filed in 2027)
Two forces pull in opposite directions:
- Smaller: the 2026 withholding tables (IRS Publication 15-T 2026) already include the new $16,100 standard deduction and brackets, so the retroactive catch-up that inflated 2025 refunds doesn’t repeat. Workers who updated their W-4 for tips or overtime have been getting the benefit in each paycheck.
- Bigger: 2026 is the first year employers report qualified tips and overtime on the W-2 (Box 12 codes TP and TT), which makes the deductions easier to claim — and many people never touched their W-4. Non-itemizers can also deduct up to $1,000 ($2,000 joint) of cash charitable gifts starting in 2026.
Our modeled refunds by salary and household (standard W-4, 2026 rules):
| Salary | Single | Single + overtime | HoH + 1 child | MFJ + 2 kids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | ≈ $0 | $202 | $4,053 | $9,634 |
| $60,000 | ≈ $0 | $303 | $2,200 | $5,642 |
| $80,000 | ≈ $0 | $739 | $2,200 | $4,400 |
| $100,000 | ≈ $0 | $924 | $2,200 | $4,400 |
For a personal number, use the refund estimator, or open the page for your salary: $50k, $75k, $100k.
Beat the average — or know why you won’tEnter your wages, withholding, kids and any tips or overtime — the estimator applies every rule on this page.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average tax refund in 2026?
The IRS reported an average refund of $3,273 through May 1, 2026, up 11.1% from $2,947 at the same point in 2025. The average direct-deposit refund was $3,268.
Why were tax refunds bigger in 2026?
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act applied retroactively to all of 2025, with a higher standard deduction, a $2,200 Child Tax Credit and new deductions for tips, overtime, seniors and car-loan interest, while 2025 withholding hadn’t been adjusted.
Will tax refunds be bigger in 2027?
There’s no official forecast. The 2026 withholding tables already reflect the new standard deduction and brackets, so the one-time catch-up won’t repeat, but people who qualify for the new deductions and didn’t update their W-4 can still see larger refunds.
Is a big refund good?
It means you over-paid during the year and gave the government an interest-free loan. Some people like the forced savings; others prefer bigger paychecks by adjusting their W-4.
Related tax refund guides
- Why is my tax refund smaller this year?Eight common reasons, each with a dollar example.
- How to adjust your W-4 for 2026Bigger paycheck or bigger refund — step by step.
- When will I get my tax refund in 2027?21-day e-file rule, PATH Act hold for EITC/ACTC, and a date chart.
- Where’s My Refund? Tracking your 2027 refundWhat the three status bars mean and when to worry.
- Tax filing deadline 2027: April 15Key dates, extensions and what being late really costs.
- No tax on tips explained (2026)Up to $25,000, who qualifies, phase-out and examples.
- No tax on overtime explained (2026)Only the “half” counts — up to $12,500 / $25,000.
- Tax refund on a $60,000 salaryWorked example by filing status
Sources & method
- IRS 2026 Filing Season Statistics, week ending May 1, 2026: average refund $3,273 vs $2,947 a year earlier.
- IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (Oct 9, 2025): 2026 tax brackets, standard deduction ($16,100 / $32,200 / $24,150), additional 65+ amounts, EITC table, CTC $2,200 — as summarized by KPMG TaxNewsFlash and Current Federal Tax Developments (Oct 2025).
- IRS Publication 15-T (2026), Federal Income Tax Withholding Methods — Annual Percentage Method, STANDARD schedules (updated for P.L. 119-21).
- IRS Form W-4 (2026) — new Step 4(b) worksheet lines for tips, overtime and car-loan interest (CBIZ summary, Jan 29, 2026).
- Our refund model: one W-2 job, wages only, federal income tax only (Social Security and Medicare are never refunded), Form W-4 filled out with just the filing-status box (Pub 15-T standard tables), no pre-tax 401(k). These are estimates, not tax advice — your Form 1040 decides the real number. Parameters checked 2026-11-03.